Across investor forums and weekend BBQs, a common view is emerging: Melbourne has become too expensive to offer strong returns without serious holding power. In contrast, Geelong is beginning to tick the boxes for everyday buyers and investors looking for better value and long-term upside.

Geelong is increasingly recognised as a smart alternative for those priced out of Melbourne or looking to diversify their portfolios. Here’s why:

• Lower entry price: Median house prices in Geelong are significantly below Melbourne, making it more accessible for first-time investors or those expanding their portfolios.

• Stronger rental yield: In many Geelong suburbs, rental yields sit around 4–5%, helping to offset rising interest costs and improve cash flow.

• Proximity to Melbourne CBD: At just over an hour by train, Geelong is close enough to benefit from Melbourne’s economic ripple effect. Many residents commute to Melbourne a few days a week or work remotely.

One of the most promising signs for long-term capital growth is Geelong’s population forecast. Over the next 15 years, the population is expected to grow by 63%, pushing demand for housing, infrastructure, and services.

Geelong is also becoming more commuter-friendly. Major upgrades to the rail network, including the Geelong Fast Rail project, are underway. These will reduce travel time to Melbourne to just 50 minutes, making the city even more appealing to those who want affordability without giving up access to a capital city job market.

With these advantages, Geelong is well-placed to attract investors who are focused on value, yield, and long-term demand, all without needing to compete in Melbourne’s overheated market.

What’s Driving Economic Strength in Geelong

Geelong is no longer just a regional satellite of Melbourne; it’s building its own momentum. A mix of steady population growth, strong infrastructure investment, and a diversified job market are creating real opportunities for investors and homebuyers alike. Here’s what’s powering the city’s economic engine:

Local Economy Worth Over $20 Billion

Geelong isn’t a small regional outpost anymore. The city now generates over $20 billion in gross regional product, contributing around 3.5% to Victoria’s total state output.

This economic base supports a growing population of nearly 300,000 residents and helps explain why Geelong is seeing renewed interest from investors, developers, and government planners alike.
    •    $20B+ GRP signals long-term confidence
    •    3.5% of Victoria’s GSP from Geelong alone
    •    Supports a growing and self-sustaining regional population

Diverse and Stable Job Sectors

Geelong’s economy isn’t reliant on a single sector. Instead, it’s made up of a broad mix of industries that support stable employment across both white-collar and blue-collar roles.

Key industries driving Geelong’s job growth:
    •    Health and social assistance
    •    Education and training
    •    Construction
    •    Manufacturing
    •    Retail
    •    Tourism and accommodation services

This industry mix plays a key role in creating long-term housing demand across different suburbs, income levels, and demographic groups.

Recent job growth highlights:
    •    Over 1,800 new manufacturing jobs were added in 2024, showing strong growth in advanced and regional manufacturing
    •    More than 10,000 jobs in healthcare were created between 2019 and 2024, reinforcing the long-term strength of this sector

With ongoing investment in hospitals, university campuses, and commercial development, Geelong’s job market is expected to continue growing in line with its population and housing needs.
 

 Is Geelong a Better Choice than Melbourne Right Now?

With many investors reassessing their strategies in the face of rising costs and tighter lending conditions, the question is shifting from “Where can I grow my portfolio fastest?” to “Where can I hold it sustainably and still grow?” While Melbourne continues to attract attention for capital growth, Geelong is presenting a strong case for balanced investing with better cash flow.

Immediate Growth vs Balanced Strategy

If you’re aiming for short-term capital gains, Melbourne may deliver quicker returns, particularly in some of the more affordable outer-ring suburbs. But fast growth often comes with higher price tags and lower rental yields.

Geelong, on the other hand, is offering a more balanced path:
    •    Rental yields of up to 5% in selected suburbs
    •    Lower holding costs due to cheaper purchase prices and better rental income
    •    More accessible entry point for first-time investors or those with tighter budgets

For those prioritising cash flow or seeking a more stable investment to hold over time, Geelong is increasingly appealing.

A Delayed but Reliable Growth Pattern

Geelong’s growth typically lags behind Melbourne by 6 to 12 months, but the pattern is consistent. When Melbourne moves, Geelong tends to follow.

This correlation means that macroeconomic factors like interest rate cuts, population shifts, and infrastructure funding that drive Melbourne’s cycles will eventually flow through to Geelong.

For buyers looking to stay ahead of the curve, this lag can be an advantage. It allows investors to buy while prices are still settling and ride the upswing as demand catches up.

Geelong may not be the place for instant equity gains in the next three months, but for those willing to wait, it could deliver a strong combination of yield, affordability, and steady growth in the coming years.

Suburb Watchlist: Where to Invest in Geelong

With more investors turning to Geelong as an affordable alternative to Melbourne, knowing which suburbs to focus on can make all the difference. Geelong isn’t a small town; it’s a city of over 290,000 people, with a wide mix of neighbourhoods ranging from gentrified inner areas to newly built outer estates.

Here’s a breakdown of suburbs worth watching and a few to be cautious about.

4 Suburbs with Long-Term Potential

These areas are showing strong fundamentals for long-term growth, whether you’re chasing capital gains, rental yield, or renovation opportunities.

• Lara: Well-connected via train and road to both Geelong and Melbourne, Lara appeals to a wide range of buyers. Its affordability, community feel, and infrastructure links make it a reliable option for investors seeking stability.

• North Geelong: Just minutes from the CBD and close to the port, North Geelong has the hallmarks of a classic inner-ring suburb. With older homes and some industrial zoning being reimagined, it offers solid renovation and value-add potential.

• Belmont: A favourite among families, Belmont has good schools, local amenities, and a strong owner-occupier base. Its consistent demand makes it a lower-risk suburb for long-term investors looking for steady growth.

• Grovedale: Located near Waurn Ponds Shopping Centre and the Surf Coast Highway, Grovedale benefits from both city and coastal appeal. Infrastructure is well-established, and the suburb has seen stable rental demand and price performance over time.

Areas to Approach With Caution

While every suburb has its own unique opportunities, the following areas currently pose more risk due to supply or slower market conditions.

• Armstrong Creek: This new housing estate zone has grown rapidly, and while infrastructure is improving, the sheer number of new builds means oversupply risk remains high. Rental and resale competition could affect investor returns.

• Norlane & Corio: These suburbs offer low entry prices, but they come with socio-economic challenges. While growth isn’t impossible, change tends to be slower. Investors need to weigh up yield potential against tenant risk and slower gentrification.

If you’re planning to invest in Geelong, having a buyer’s agent on your side can help you avoid missteps and spot early movers before they become hot zones. Suburb-level knowledge, especially in changing markets, is where smart money is made.

Infrastructure and Liveability Are Improving

Geelong’s liveability is stepping up alongside its investment appeal. As the city grows, so does its investment in major infrastructure and community-focused amenities. These upgrades are not only improving the day-to-day experience for locals but also helping attract new residents, businesses, and investors.

Here are some of the key infrastructure projects and lifestyle improvements shaping Geelong’s future:

• Avalon Airport upgrades underway. Expansion works are set to improve both domestic and international flight access, supporting tourism, local jobs, and connectivity across Australia.

• $294 million convention and exhibition centre. A major development in the CBD will bring business tourism, conferences, and events to the city, supporting local jobs and retail activity.

• Deakin University expansion. Continued investment in education is drawing both local and international students. The university plays a strong role in the local economy and rental demand.

• Geelong Fast Rail project. A major rail upgrade is in progress to reduce commute times to Melbourne to just 50 minutes, boosting Geelong’s appeal for hybrid and remote workers.

• More schools, restaurants, and family facilities. From upgraded public schools to new cafés and playgrounds, Geelong is attracting families and professionals seeking a lifestyle upgrade without the Melbourne price tag.

These improvements are helping shift Geelong from a commuter town to a self-sustaining regional hub, one that offers strong fundamentals for investors who value both rental demand and long-term growth potential.

Should You Invest in Geelong Now or Wait?

As interest rates stabilise and migration returns to regional hubs, many buyers are asking whether now is the right time to invest in Geelong or hold out for further clarity. The answer depends on your goals and investment strategy.

If you’re looking for:

• Immediate equity growth → Melbourne may offer quicker returns, particularly in suburbs already showing upward momentum.

• Sustainable cash flow and balanced growth → Geelong is showing strong signs of becoming a strategic choice for investors who value yield and affordability.

While some of Geelong’s suburbs haven’t yet experienced the rapid price surges seen in parts of Melbourne, this could present a window of opportunity. With infrastructure investment underway, job creation climbing, and migration to affordable regional cities increasing, 2026 could be the year Geelong moves from a ‘watchlist’ suburb to a clear ‘buy zone’.

For buyers who want to get ahead of the trend, there are renovation-ready homes in key areas like North Geelong and Grovedale. These properties offer a chance to manufacture equity before the broader market picks up, giving early movers an edge.

Geelong may not be the market for a quick flip, but if your strategy includes holding for cash flow, adding value, and riding the next cycle of regional growth, now could be the time to act.

How a Buyer’s Agent Can Help You Find the Right Suburb

As Geelong continues to attract investors, local knowledge becomes even more valuable. Buyer’s agents are already active across the region and are helping investors avoid common traps and secure better long-term outcomes.

Working with a buyer’s agent in Geelong gives you access to on-the-ground expertise that can make a measurable difference to your investment.

Here’s how they can help:

• Identify undervalued suburbs

  Buyer’s agents use suburb-level data and local insight to find areas that haven’t yet caught the attention of the wider market.

• Avoid oversupplied areas

  With many new housing estates still being built, especially in places like Armstrong Creek, a buyer’s agent can steer you away from stock that may take longer to grow in value.

• Negotiate below-market deals

  Many buyer’s agents have long-standing relationships with local agents and developers, helping secure better terms and early access to listings.

• Spot future growth corridors

  By tracking infrastructure plans, population shifts, and economic activity, buyer’s agents can help you get ahead of the trend and invest before prices rise.

Whether you’re buying your first investment property or building a portfolio, having a buyer’s agent on your side can reduce risk and improve your returns, especially in a growing market like Geelong.

Final Thoughts

Geelong might not be making headlines, but the signals are getting stronger. From major infrastructure investment to steady job growth and population projections, this is a market quietly gaining ground.

With the right strategy and suburb selection, investors entering in 2025 or 2026 could benefit from both yield and capital growth, especially before wider buyer interest drives prices up. Suburbs like Lara, North Geelong, Belmont, and Grovedale are already showing potential, while future rail upgrades and airport expansion will only improve Geelong’s long-term appeal.

If you’re looking to make a move in Geelong, working with a qualified buyer’s agent can help you avoid risk, unlock hidden opportunities, and secure a deal that fits your strategy.

Ready to find the right buyer’s agent for your Geelong investment?

Visit BuyerAgentFinder to compare experienced buyer’s agents and get matched based on your goals; 100% free for property buyers.